Pakistan inflation eases to 9.61% in October 2026 - chicken up 19%, tomatoes down 32%

Pakistan's inflation rate fell to 9.61% in October 2026, down from 10.26% in September, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday, 2 November. It is the first single-digit reading after two months in double digits.

That does not mean prices fell. It means they rose more slowly than before. Prices were still 1.1% higher than in September, and the kitchen bill went up for many families because chicken, wheat and flour jumped during the month.

October inflation in numbers

Average inflation for the first four months of the fiscal year, July to October, was 10.05%. In the same period last year it was 4.79%, Aaj News reported.

The result came in within the Finance Ministry's forecast range of 9.5% to 10.5%. It was a little higher than some brokerage estimates, such as Topline Securities' 9% to 9.5% range.

What got more expensive in October?

The monthly figures show where the pressure came from. These are the largest month-on-month moves reported from the PBS data.

Most of the big risers are everyday food items. Wheat and flour weigh most heavily on lower-income homes, which spend a larger share of their income on food.

What got cheaper?

There was relief on a few items:

• Tomatoes: down 31.63% in a month
• Onions: down 4.23%
• Potatoes: down 4.04%
• Sugar: down 2.17%
• Electricity charges: down 3.31%

Prices in rural areas rose faster during the month, by 1.5%, than in cities, where the increase was 0.8%.

Why inflation fell even though prices rose

Year-on-year inflation compares this October with last October. In October 2025, prices had jumped 1.7% in a single month. This October the monthly rise was smaller, at 1.1%. Because the starting point was already high, the annual rate came down. Economists call this a base effect.

What it means for interest rates

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its policy rate to 12% in late October, which we explained in our SBP rate story. With inflation at 9.61%, the policy rate is now about 2.4 percentage points above inflation. A positive gap like this is what the central bank uses to keep inflation in check.

Lower oil prices since the start of November, and the petrol and diesel cut from 3 November, could ease transport costs in the November figures. But food items such as wheat and chicken can move quickly, so one month's slowdown is not yet a trend.

What this means for your household budget

Illustration only: if your monthly household spending was Rs100,000 in October 2025, buying the same basket in October 2026 at 9.61% inflation would cost about Rs109,610.

What you can do:

1. Compare your savings rate with inflation. A savings account paying well below 9.61% is losing value in real terms.
2. Buy staples in season. Tomatoes and onions are cheaper this month. Flour and pulses are not, so compare shops before buying in bulk.
3. Review fixed costs. Electricity charges fell slightly in October. Check your bill for slab changes and use our electricity bill calculator to plan.
4. Keep an eye on the next release. PBS usually publishes the November figures in the first days of December.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.